Search the web

Google
 

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Where is Video gaming industry heading?


The current generation of consoles is so diverse and as a result, video gaming industry is at crossroads. The winner of this three-way race (360, PS3, Wii) will cause a major directional shift in the industry depending on what happens.

If the PS3 wins: consumers will have chosen high technology and media convergence. Future consoles would be more PC-like (just as media PCs are becoming more console-like), and pretty soon PCs and Consoles would be indistinguishable. If this happens, with PCs fighting head-to-head with Consoles for control of the living room, I actually think PCs would win because they're more customizable, upgradeable, and general-purpose. End result would be a resurgence in PC gaming, and a "crash" on the console side.

If the Wii wins: consumers will have sent a strong message to the industry that they want gameplay, not technology. This is so incompatible with Sony's greater market strategy that they would likely drop out of the console market entirely (with SCE perhaps going the way of Sega), while Microsoft would probably continue to position itself as the "mature" gaming console. With the market narrowed to two main contenders, we'd probably see at least one newcomer in 8th generation, and I'd bet at least one company will totally miss the point and try to create a console with a bunch of wacky new controllers that are impossible to create games for. In either case, consoles will move back to being "for games" and this whole "media convergence" thing we keep hearing about will be one more fad that's over.

If the 360 wins: this would show that gamers still care a lot about high production values, but there's also a limit to how much anyone's willing to spend on a game machine. Sony would still probably drop out, Nintendo would continue to be the low-cost leader that it always has, and Microsoft would use the lessons it learned with operating systems to lock down a near-monopoly on console gaming in the following generation.

No comments: